Flu and RSV are sustaining California’s sniffly season, COVID yet to surge this winter

The season of sniffles and coughs has come once more. However whereas influenza and RSV exercise is “reasonable and growing” round California, COVID exercise is unusually low for the vacation season.

The newest weekly replace from California’s Division of Public Well being exhibits the check positivity price for flu has risen by almost 4 proportion factors in per week to 13.2% as of Dec. 14, the newest accessible knowledge. The COVID positivity price is at 2.3%, rising 0.2 proportion factors from the earlier week.

The well being division’s weekly updates are posted most Fridays, however the respiratory virus stories for the final two weeks of the yr will not be reported till January.

“COVID is rising, however influenza is main the pack proper now,” mentioned Dr. John Swartzberg, medical professor emeritus on the UC Berkeley Faculty of Public Well being.

Since COVID emerged on the finish of the 2019-2020 respiratory virus season, it has been by far probably the most lethal of the respiratory viruses for which the state tracks and publishes weekly knowledge, although it has killed fewer individuals every of the previous few years in comparison with early within the pandemic.

Since July 1, there have been 1,873 COVID deaths throughout California—with the summer time surge not subsiding till late August—and 89 flu deaths.

After the late summer time surge, COVID deaths as soon as once more reached new lows, and testing, hospitalizations and deaths are simply now beginning to present indicators of a rise as we head into the brand new yr.

“In case you take a look at wastewater knowledge, COVID is clearly rising all through the USA and definitely in California,” Swartzberg mentioned.

In Santa Clara County, wastewater measurements present the identical sample. County public well being officers monitor native wastewater and check for concentrations of the viruses in 4 native sewersheds. Based on aggregated wastewater surveillance knowledge monitored by the state well being division, COVID ranges in the complete Bay Space area have simply crossed from low to medium and are growing.

Influenza concentrations began to rise in November and have continued to rise by December. RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, has been on the rise since late November. Swartzberg mentioned that RSV might have peaked, however COVID continues to be anticipated to surge later within the season.

COVID has been at low concentrations within the county’s 4 sewersheds because the center of October after a chronic surge that lasted from June by August, with concentrations measuring at excessive concentrations for a lot of that point across the county.

Now COVID ranges appear to be the bottom they have been in December prior to now a number of years. “It is trying higher than final yr, and final yr was the most effective winter we had,” Swartzberg mentioned.

Though COVID vaccination numbers are decrease than they had been within the first years of their availability, some immunity from this summer time’s surge continues to be lingering locally. However the quantity of people that have obtained the newest vaccination is “disappointingly low,” in Swartzberg’s opinion. Influenza vaccination charges are greater however nowhere close to early COVID vaccination charges.

A brand new RSV vaccine, which is really useful for the very younger, these over 75 and another high-risk individuals, is perhaps contributing to the general enchancment in charges of that virus this yr in comparison with final yr, Swartzberg mentioned. For the reason that starting of this respiratory virus season on July 1, California has reported 21 deaths as a result of virus, together with 4 kids, in comparison with 33 on the similar level final yr.

“RSV seems to be prefer it’s on monitor for a greater yr,” he mentioned.

And whereas quite a bit has modified, together with the prevalence of COVID at this yr’s vacation dinner tables in comparison with the previous few years, Swartzberg’s normal recommendation has not: “Please get immunized. It isn’t too late.”

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