Groupthink underpinned the flawed considering behind the UK’s pandemic response, a succession of witnesses on the coronary heart of presidency advised the Covid-19 public inquiry.
The previous prime minister and the previous chancellor, David Cameron and George Osborne, admitted it; as did the present and former chief medical officers Prof Chris Whitty and Dame Sally Davies. The previous well being secretary Jeremy Hunt and the Cupboard Workplace minister Sir Oliver Letwin agreed.
By failing to problem consensus views on readiness, reminiscent of Matt Hancock’s assertion “the UK was among the best positioned international locations on the planet for responding to a pandemic” – the 4 nations’ capacity to react was weakened. It was, the inquiry chair, Girl Hallett, concluded, “an acute drawback”, with scientific recommendation specifically “not topic to enough exterior problem by both ministers or officers”.
Her prescribed antidote: a dose of “pink groups”.
The time period seems to have first been used through the chilly battle when US safety officers would position play because the Soviet Union (the pink workforce) towards the US (blue workforce) in technique video games geared toward stopping army conflagration. The Thirteenth-century Catholic church had an identical concept of appointing a chosen dissenter (on this case to check the deserves of canonising explicit figures): the satan’s advocate. Boris Johnson’s former chief-of-staff, Dominic Cummings, is an avowed pink groups fan, running a blog that “they’re virtually nowhere within the formal construction of governments” and but there may be large scope for an “extraordinarily elite pink workforce” working above the Cupboard Workplace. It might price “a number of million that it might recoup inside weeks by stopping blunders”, he stated.
Crimson groups within the context of disaster planning, stated Hallett, can spot “cognitive biases that may result in errors of judgment”, together with “optimism bias”: the human tendency to overestimate the chance of fine issues occurring, whereas underestimating the dangerous. That’s the reason she stated pink groups needs to be partly staffed with non-experts expert in crucial considering and incisive problem.
For instance, the scientific recommendation on pandemic dangers was overly weighted in favour of biomedical science, Hallett stated. What in regards to the social and financial penalties? There was additionally no “guard towards the dangers of typical knowledge turning into embedded within the establishments liable for emergency preparedness and resilience”.
The previous Conservative minister Michael Gove described to the inquiry how authorities ministers tended to starvation for certainty the place it won’t exist.
He stated: “We search certainty however it’s typically elusive, and it might be higher if politicians and decision-makers have been to say: ‘Inform me in regards to the debate, what’s the lead possibility inside the tutorial group right here, however what are also the options?’”
Why, for instance, did Public Well being England, whose job was to guard the general public from infectious illnesses, solely plan for a small scale outbreak (circumstances within the few a whole bunch) of a excessive consequence infectious illness? Maybe there was inadequate problem.
Jeremy Hunt, who was well being secretary from 2012 to 2018 stated there was “a robust sense within the civil service that they should come to a consensus view and provides ministers a suggestion of a single plan of action, and that makes difficult groupthink tougher”.
Crimson groups, against this, would additionally maintain officers, scientists and specialists on their toes within the information the tyres of any plan shall be firmly kicked.
Hallett concluded: “Crimson groups needs to be used way more frequently and systematically throughout authorities advisory and decision-making constructions referring to emergency preparedness and their views conveyed to ministers. On this manner, ministers, slightly than an inner consensus, will decide emergency preparedness, resilience and response coverage. Governments and their establishments needs to be open to probably unconventional considering.”
